The Age of Competition: Global Risks and the New Economic Order in 2026

In January 2026, the World Economic Forum published its 21st Global Risks Report, and the diagnosis was stark: we have entered an "age of competition." The report, based on a survey of more than 1,300 experts and global leaders, warned that geoeconomic confrontation has become the top risk for 2026, rising eight positions compared to last year [citation:1][citation:3][citation:8]. "We have entered a new age of competition, and that competition is shaping every other global risk," said Saadia Zahidi, the Forum's Managing Director [citation:1].

This is not merely a diplomatic abstraction. It is a reality that is reshaping economies, supply chains, energy systems, and societies. The world has moved from a period of relative predictability into a more fragile era, where prolonged uncertainty could trigger shortages, financial stress, and a breakdown of cooperation [citation:4][citation:9]. And at the heart of this transformation is a fundamental question: can we still work together, or is fragmentation inevitable?

The Risk Landscape: Geoeconomics, Society, and AI

The Global Risks Report 2026 identifies a clear hierarchy of concerns. For the year ahead, the top risks are geoeconomic confrontation, state-based armed conflict, extreme weather, societal polarization, and misinformation and disinformation [citation:1][citation:8]. The two-year outlook tells a similar story, with economic risks showing the largest collective increase in ranking [citation:3].

#1 Geoeconomic confrontation tops the 2026 risk ranking, up 8 positions from 2025 [citation:1][citation:3]

68% of experts expect a more fragmented multipolar order over the next decade [citation:3][citation:8]

5th Adverse outcomes of AI climb from 30th in short‑term to 5th in 10‑year outlook [citation:3][citation:8]

50% of respondents expect a "turbulent" or "stormy" 2026 [citation:3][citation:8]

The economic outlook is equally concerning. UNCTAD projects global growth to slow from 2.9 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, as higher energy prices, transport disruptions, and market volatility weigh on investment and demand [citation:4][citation:9]. The report warns that "geopolitical risks have definitively replaced trade policy disputes as the dominant source of instability" [citation:9]. Meanwhile, global merchandise trade growth is expected to slow sharply, with AI-related sectors masking weaker momentum across traditional industries [citation:4].

"Uncertainty is the defining theme of the global risks outlook in 2026. We have entered a new age of competition, and that competition is shaping every other global risk."

— Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum [citation:1][citation:8]

One of the most striking findings of the report is the rise of AI anxiety. The risk of adverse outcomes from AI climbed from 30th place in the two-year outlook to fifth in the 10-year horizon — the largest ranking jump over time [citation:3][citation:8]. This reflects growing concerns about AI's impact on labour markets, social stability, information integrity, and military applications. As the report notes, "Awareness, education, reskilling and guardrails will be essential to mitigation strategies" [citation:3].

The New Economy: Green Growth and Creative Potential

Despite the gloom, there are counter-currents. The World Economic Forum's report Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint, published in April 2026, argues that major structural shifts are also creating opportunities [citation:7]. The report identifies four key areas of economic policy: technology, productivity and human capital; global cooperation and domestic capacity; business environment and the role of government; and sustainability and economic policy [citation:7].

Green growth, in particular, remains one of the most dynamic sectors. The green economy is now worth over $5 trillion annually, and companies with strong green revenues often outperform on multiple financial metrics [citation:6][citation:7]. The Forum projects that the green economy could reach $7 trillion per year within five years, representing "one of the most significant growth opportunities in the world" [citation:6].

The "triple bubble" and economic fragility. Analysts are increasingly warning of a "triple bubble" in global markets: AI investments, cryptocurrencies, and public debt, which has exceeded $100 trillion [citation:6]. These three bubbles are interconnected and could, if they burst, trigger a cascade of financial instability [citation:6].

At the same time, the cultural and creative industries are emerging as a significant growth area, despite not being listed as a distinct industry in the new economy. "Media, entertainment and sport" rank eighth among 21 industries for estimated growth potential over the next five years [citation:7]. Countries such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, and Brazil are making concrete investments in the creative sector, recognizing its potential for job creation and economic diversification [citation:7].

Energy and Environment: A Fragmented Transition

Perhaps the most complex landscape is in energy and climate. According to S&P Global's 2026 sustainability outlook, governments and companies are balancing near-term pressures — energy security, affordability, geopolitical risk — against long-term realities like climate adaptation and decarbonisation [citation:5]. The result is a move away from multilateral coordination toward a patchwork of national and regional responses [citation:5].

Sector	2026 Trend	Key Driver
Fossil Fuels	Modest growth (+1%)	Geopolitical disruptions, energy security focus [citation:5]
Renewables	Strong growth (+17%)	Cost competitiveness, decarbonisation targets [citation:5]
Critical Minerals	Strategic priority	AI and clean energy demand, trade diplomacy [citation:5]
Solar Capacity	First year‑on‑year decline	Slowdown in China [citation:5]
AI Data Centers	Surge in power demand	AI expansion, grid strain [citation:5]

Fossil fuel demand rebounded faster than many policymakers expected and is projected to continue growing modestly [citation:5]. At the same time, renewable energy remains the fastest-growing segment, with solar and wind expected to grow by more than 17 percent in 2026 [citation:5]. However, S&P Global expects 2026 to mark the first year-on-year decline in global solar capacity additions, driven largely by a slowdown in China [citation:5].

Critical minerals sit at the centre of these dynamics. Materials such as copper, lithium, and rare earths underpin electrification, clean energy deployment, and AI infrastructure, making access to them a central feature of trade diplomacy and investment [citation:5]. China is expected to retain its lead in cleantech manufacturing, reinforcing its role as both a key supplier and a strategic risk for countries pursuing energy transitions [citation:5].

AI is adding further strain to energy systems. The rapid expansion of AI-driven data centers is driving electricity demand sharply higher, complicating sustainability targets. S&P Global estimates that data center power consumption could exceed 2,200 terawatt-hours by 2030, roughly equivalent to India's current electricity use [citation:5].

"Sustainability decision making in 2026 will be shaped by a growing tension between near-term priorities and longer-term realities. The result is a move away from multilateral coordination toward a patchwork of national and regional responses."

— S&P Global Sustainability Outlook 2026 [citation:5]

Reimagining the New Economy

Amid the risks, there is also a reimagining of what the economy could become. The WEF's Growth in the New Economy report emphasises the importance of investing in human capital, reskilling, and upskilling [citation:7]. It notes that "the capacity of economies to grow will depend increasingly on their ability to develop, attract and empower talent" [citation:7].

The creative economy is a case in point. In Uzbekistan, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev set a national target for the creative economy to generate 5 percent of GDP by 2030, backed by concrete investment in new music and art schools, higher education institutions, and salary increases for cultural workers [citation:7]. In Kenya, President William Ruto unveiled a new Creative Economy Office to position the country as a leader in the sector [citation:7].

These developments reflect a broader shift: even as geoeconomic competition intensifies, many countries are looking inward to build domestic capacity and resilience. The challenge is to balance this with the international cooperation that remains essential for tackling shared challenges like climate change and technological governance.

The Honest Bottom Line

The world in 2026 is defined by a deep tension between fragmentation and the need for cooperation. Geoeconomic confrontation, societal polarization, and AI anxiety are the dominant risks, while environmental concerns, though deprioritised in the short term, remain the most severe long-term threats [citation:3][citation:8]. Economic growth is slowing, trade is under pressure, and developing economies are particularly exposed to food and financing shocks [citation:4][citation:9].

Yet within this challenging landscape, there are also opportunities. The green economy is growing. The creative sector is expanding. Investment in human capital and resilience is gaining recognition as a strategic priority. The question is not whether the world will change — it is already changing — but whether we can steer that change toward a more inclusive, sustainable, and cooperative future.

As the Global Risks Report 2026 reminds us, "the future is not a single, fixed path but a range of decisions we make today as a global community" [citation:3]. The age of competition is here. How we navigate it will determine the world we leave for the next generation.

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